Uganda's Economy Shows Resilience, Positive Outlook Projected: Ministry of Finance

Despite facing global and regional geopolitical challenges, Uganda’s economy is exhibiting remarkable resilience, according to Dr. Ramathan Ggoobi, Permanent Secretary for Finance and Secretary to the Treasury.

Speaking at the fourth-quarter expenditure release for the fiscal year 2025/26, Dr. Ggoobi revealed that preliminary data shows the economy expanded by 8.5 percent in the second quarter of FY 2025/26. This marks a significant increase from the 5.4 percent growth recorded in the corresponding period of the previous fiscal year. Consequently, the average economic growth for the first half of FY 2025/26 rose to 6.7 percent, up from 5.8 percent in the same period last year.

This robust performance is attributed to strong aggregate demand, increased investment, and a surge in exports. Key sectors contributing to this growth include industrial production, services, agriculture, forestry, and fishing. Other driving factors include a rise in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), particularly in the oil and gas, agriculture, tourism, and mineral development sectors. The ongoing science, technology, and innovation initiatives, alongside political stability and a stable macroeconomic environment, are also playing crucial roles.

Projections indicate that by the end of June 2026, Uganda’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will be valued at $68.4 billion (UGX 251.4 trillion), reaching $194.2 billion in Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) terms. The GDP per capita is expected to be $1,399 (UGX 5.03 million) by June this year.

With the commencement of oil production anticipated later this year, the Ministry of Finance forecasts double-digit economic growth for the financial year 2026/27. On the monetary front, the Ugandan Shilling has shown strength, supported by prudent economic management, an open capital account, diversified exports, a liberalized foreign exchange market, and an active FDI policy. Recent government actions to directly import refined petroleum products from producers have further bolstered the shilling’s stability, which is expected to continue despite minor recent depreciation pressures linked to Middle Eastern conflict speculation.

This information was reported by the Uganda Investment Authority.