economy 14 April 2026 Daily Monitor (Uganda)
IMF Slashes Global Growth Forecast Amid Middle East War Disruptions
The IMF has lowered its global growth projections to 3.1% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027 due to the Middle East conflict disrupting energy supplies and inflating risks. Uganda faces rising fuel costs, weaker exports, and falling remittances as a result. Source: https://www.monitor.co.ug/uganda/news/national/imf-cuts-global-growth-outlook-as-middle-east-conflict-rattles-economy-5423766
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised downward its global economic growth forecasts, attributing the change to the ongoing Middle East conflict that started on February 28.
In its World Economic Outlook released on April 14 in Washington, DC, the IMF now expects 3.1 percent growth in 2026 and 3.2 percent in 2027. This represents a 0.2 percentage point cut from January estimates, with inflation projected to climb to 4.4 percent in 2026 before dropping to 3.7 percent the following year.
These figures fall short of the 3.4 percent average seen in 2024-2025 and the 3.7 percent historical norm from 2000-2019. IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas described the outlook as abruptly darkened by the war, which could disrupt the Strait of Hormuz and spark an energy crisis.
Without the conflict, growth might have reached 3.4 percent in 2026, bolstered by robust momentum and reduced trade tensions.
Uganda is already experiencing impacts through higher fuel prices, declining Middle East exports, and reduced remittances.
The IMF recommends prioritizing price stability, protecting public finances, pursuing reforms, maintaining central bank vigilance on inflation, strengthening financial oversight, and offering temporary aid to vulnerable groups while avoiding excessive spending.
This report highlights heightened global economic uncertainty affecting both advanced and emerging economies.
Source: Daily Monitor (Uganda)