El Niño to Bring Above-Normal Rains Across Uganda, Varied Regional Impacts Expected

Uganda is set to experience enhanced rainfall in the coming months, driven by the intensifying El Niño phenomenon, according to the Ministry of Water and Environment. The forecast indicates that most of the country will receive rainfall approximately 25% above the average of the past 30 years, with the effects expected to be felt nationwide, though intensity will differ by region.

In Western Uganda, regions like the Southwestern Highlands and Rwenzori are predicted to have stable to steady rains from mid-to-late September, peaking in October and November. While the Southwestern Lowlands will see dry conditions persist until later in September, steady rains are then anticipated, potentially lasting into early 2027.

Central Uganda and the Lake Victoria region will also experience increased rainfall. Areas in the Central Western and western parts of the Central region can expect steady showers from mid-to-late September, with peaks in October and November. Similarly, the eastern parts of the Central region and the Lake Victoria basin are forecast to receive above-normal rains, with dry spells expected to break by mid-to-late September and precipitation continuing into January.

Eastern Uganda is forecast to see steady rains from mid-to-late September, peaking between October and November. This pattern is expected across the Eastern, Southeastern, and eastern Kyoga regions, with above-normal rainfall predicted and potential continuation into January. The Mountain Elgon region anticipates occasional rains until mid-to-late September before steady, above-normal rainfall peaks between mid-October and mid-November.

Northeastern and Northern Uganda will receive comparatively less rainfall than other areas but are still projected to experience near-normal to above-normal precipitation. Consistent rains are expected after late September in the northeast, peaking in mid-October to mid-November. West Nile and the northern region will see steady rains from mid-to-late September, peaking in mid-October to November, with above-normal rainfall expected.

The Ministry attributes these varied patterns to El Niño, the Indian Ocean Dipole shifting to a positive phase, the Intertropical Convergence Zone, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Officials are urging for preparedness in sectors like agriculture, health, and disaster management to mitigate potential risks such as flooding and landslides.

Source: https://www.monitor.co.ug/uganda/news/national/how-different-regions-will-be-affected-by-el-ni%C3%B1o-rains-in-uganda-5577882